Covid-19
This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only “signal” or at most “provisional” estimates will be provided.
It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.
As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania’s forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.
New information as at 2020-07-13 based on 13,104,391 confirmed cases worldwide (581,287 deaths, 875 deaths in the last 24h)
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered Tests
1: US 3364157 59215 59017 180920 139143 1600195 44030877
2: Brazil 1884967 20286 24831 46237 74262 1213512 4572796
3: India 906752 28498 28732 30735 24315 593080 12092503
4: Russia 732547 6511 6587 7400 11614 512825 23495752
5: Peru 330123 3797 3616 3744 12229 223261 1963921
6: Chile 317657 2616 3012 1836 7069 289220 1322503
7: Mexico 304435 4685 4482 7051 36327 193976 756137
8: United Kingdom 291691 537 650 0 44968 0 12270317
9: South Africa 287796 11554 12058 10496 4346 146279 2232738
10: Iran 259652 2349 2186 2521 13211 225270 2023079
11: Spain 255953 2045 0 47746 28409 0 6026446
12: Pakistan 253604 1979 2753 0 5320 170656 1606190
13: Italy 243230 169 234 114 34984 195441 6004611
14: Saudi Arabia 235111 2852 2779 2692 2283 177560 2336874
15: Turkey 214001 1008 1012 992 5402 196720 4065178
16: France 209640 1625 0 0 30029 78597 2489269
17: Germany 200180 261 210 586 9144 185500 6376054
18: Bangladesh 186894 3099 2666 3163 2424 103227 966400
19: Colombia 150445 5083 4586 9453 5625 68806 1082415
20: Canada 109984 636 198 0 8798 72170 3302483
21: Qatar 104016 418 470 517 150 101160 420649
22: Argentina 103265 3099 2657 3645 1968 45467 483799
23: China 85117 0 46 64 4642 79922 376645
24: Egypt 83001 931 912 929 4008 25544 135000
25: Iraq 79735 2229 2312 2022 3345 50782 698012
26: Indonesia 76981 1282 1681 1591 3710 37636 1097468
27: Sweden 75826 928 0 175 5545 0 681820
28: Ecuador 68459 589 661 0 5063 30369 183392
29: Belarus 65114 182 165 155 474 55799 1144696
30: Belgium 62707 0 238 74 9787 17223 1390593
31: Kazakhstan 61755 3502 0 0 375 35911 1719295
32: Oman 58179 2164 1318 1389 273 37987 244831
33: Philippines 57006 747 2037 539 1603 20459 1017723
34: Kuwait 55508 614 836 666 396 46161 441143
35: Ukraine 55285 638 706 0 1412 27154 813396
36: UAE 55198 344 401 375 335 46025 4000000
37: Netherlands 51308 71 101 0 6135 0 764079
38: Bolivia 49250 1063 987 1617 1898 15819 111416
39: Panama 47173 1540 1301 923 960 24667 171116
40: Portugal 46818 306 291 233 1668 31550 1366864
41: Singapore 46283 322 178 347 27 42737 1009532
42: Dominican Republic 45506 974 1418 799 910 23134 189391
43: Israel 40632 1962 1206 1728 371 19665 1317362
44: Poland 38190 299 370 267 1588 27756 1813365
45: Afghanistan 34455 4 85 285 1048 21454 81252
46: Bahrain 33476 535 471 602 111 29753 685318
47: Nigeria 33153 595 571 463 754 13792 186309
48: Romania 32948 413 456 637 1931 21803 868478
49: Switzerland 32946 63 66 70 1968 29800 690701
50: Armenia 32151 182 577 339 581 20729 136802
51: Guatemala 29742 387 757 1130 1302 4453 64590
52: Honduras 28579 489 507 0 789 3123 49308
53: Ireland 25638 10 17 32 1746 23364 523277
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered TestsNote. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.
Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country’s data.
The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.
Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2020-07-14
Romania’s case based on different models
Now we will try to forecast Romania’s evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.
On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania’s cases will double before 2020-04-04.
On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Italy+).
On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I’ll bet they will have an unique model, don’t you agree?
On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.
On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.
As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania’s model got a drift!
Updated: 2020-07-15 05:00:16
