Covid-19

This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only “signal” or at most “provisional” estimates will be provided.

It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.

As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania’s forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.

New information as at 2020-07-13 based on 13,104,391 confirmed cases worldwide (581,287 deaths, 875 deaths in the last 24h)

               Country     Sum LastDay TwoDays  Newly Deaths Recovered    Tests
 1:                 US 3364157   59215   59017 180920 139143   1600195 44030877
 2:             Brazil 1884967   20286   24831  46237  74262   1213512  4572796
 3:              India  906752   28498   28732  30735  24315    593080 12092503
 4:             Russia  732547    6511    6587   7400  11614    512825 23495752
 5:               Peru  330123    3797    3616   3744  12229    223261  1963921
 6:              Chile  317657    2616    3012   1836   7069    289220  1322503
 7:             Mexico  304435    4685    4482   7051  36327    193976   756137
 8:     United Kingdom  291691     537     650      0  44968         0 12270317
 9:       South Africa  287796   11554   12058  10496   4346    146279  2232738
10:               Iran  259652    2349    2186   2521  13211    225270  2023079
11:              Spain  255953    2045       0  47746  28409         0  6026446
12:           Pakistan  253604    1979    2753      0   5320    170656  1606190
13:              Italy  243230     169     234    114  34984    195441  6004611
14:       Saudi Arabia  235111    2852    2779   2692   2283    177560  2336874
15:             Turkey  214001    1008    1012    992   5402    196720  4065178
16:             France  209640    1625       0      0  30029     78597  2489269
17:            Germany  200180     261     210    586   9144    185500  6376054
18:         Bangladesh  186894    3099    2666   3163   2424    103227   966400
19:           Colombia  150445    5083    4586   9453   5625     68806  1082415
20:             Canada  109984     636     198      0   8798     72170  3302483
21:              Qatar  104016     418     470    517    150    101160   420649
22:          Argentina  103265    3099    2657   3645   1968     45467   483799
23:              China   85117       0      46     64   4642     79922   376645
24:              Egypt   83001     931     912    929   4008     25544   135000
25:               Iraq   79735    2229    2312   2022   3345     50782   698012
26:          Indonesia   76981    1282    1681   1591   3710     37636  1097468
27:             Sweden   75826     928       0    175   5545         0   681820
28:            Ecuador   68459     589     661      0   5063     30369   183392
29:            Belarus   65114     182     165    155    474     55799  1144696
30:            Belgium   62707       0     238     74   9787     17223  1390593
31:         Kazakhstan   61755    3502       0      0    375     35911  1719295
32:               Oman   58179    2164    1318   1389    273     37987   244831
33:        Philippines   57006     747    2037    539   1603     20459  1017723
34:             Kuwait   55508     614     836    666    396     46161   441143
35:            Ukraine   55285     638     706      0   1412     27154   813396
36:                UAE   55198     344     401    375    335     46025  4000000
37:        Netherlands   51308      71     101      0   6135         0   764079
38:            Bolivia   49250    1063     987   1617   1898     15819   111416
39:             Panama   47173    1540    1301    923    960     24667   171116
40:           Portugal   46818     306     291    233   1668     31550  1366864
41:          Singapore   46283     322     178    347     27     42737  1009532
42: Dominican Republic   45506     974    1418    799    910     23134   189391
43:             Israel   40632    1962    1206   1728    371     19665  1317362
44:             Poland   38190     299     370    267   1588     27756  1813365
45:        Afghanistan   34455       4      85    285   1048     21454    81252
46:            Bahrain   33476     535     471    602    111     29753   685318
47:            Nigeria   33153     595     571    463    754     13792   186309
48:            Romania   32948     413     456    637   1931     21803   868478
49:        Switzerland   32946      63      66     70   1968     29800   690701
50:            Armenia   32151     182     577    339    581     20729   136802
51:          Guatemala   29742     387     757   1130   1302      4453    64590
52:           Honduras   28579     489     507      0    789      3123    49308
53:            Ireland   25638      10      17     32   1746     23364   523277
               Country     Sum LastDay TwoDays  Newly Deaths Recovered    Tests

Note. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.

Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country’s data.

The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.

Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2020-07-14

Romania’s case based on different models

Now we will try to forecast Romania’s evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.

On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania’s cases will double before 2020-04-04.

On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Italy+).

On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I’ll bet they will have an unique model, don’t you agree?

On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.

On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.

As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania’s model got a drift!

Updated: 2020-07-15 05:00:16

Valentin Cornaciu
Valentin Cornaciu
Actuary

My research interests include insurance, finance, audit, pricing.