Covid-19
This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.
It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.
As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.
New information as at 2021-11-26 based on 260,650,450 confirmed cases worldwide (5,211,002 deaths, 361 deaths today, on 585,981 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered Tests
1: US 48177907 51333 34522 873010 799138 38840683 748066598
2: India 34555431 0 10549 8318 467933 33988797 638247889
3: Brazil 22067630 12392 12126 0 614000 21282804 63776166
4: United Kingdom 10125945 49829 47287 0 144593 8912424 358682719
5: Russia 9337575 33824 32866 165304 270292 8200971 222900000
6: Turkey 8702611 24002 24467 0 76041 8233500 106254025
7: France 7654128 34472 33510 0 118837 7090100 162981031
8: Iran 6102056 4384 4850 0 129462 5841870 38331546
9: Germany 5735837 65584 74579 0 101170 4803100 83816414
10: Argentina 5324039 1912 2260 0 116505 5188158 26078053
11: Spain 5131012 9912 9258 0 87955 4914286 66213858
12: Colombia 5060557 2660 2644 0 128343 4900602 27944138
13: Italy 4982022 13681 13756 0 133537 4675867 117226273
14: Indonesia 4255268 453 372 0 143796 4103379 53414990
15: Mexico 3879836 3445 8415 0 293614 3236518 11808599
16: Ukraine 3565644 16802 17873 0 84149 2877021 15746389
17: Poland 3461066 26794 28143 0 82607 2955478 24112413
18: South Africa 2952500 0 2465 2828 89783 2845607 19348954
19: Philippines 2830387 769 958 0 48017 2764517 24070626
20: Malaysia 2614480 5501 6144 0 30240 2516693 37333750
21: Netherlands 2596521 21349 22239 0 19217 2081649 19205114
22: Peru 2231175 1434 3085 0 200987 0 20109465
23: Thailand 2100959 6073 12894 0 20675 2000502 14913135
24: Czechia 2089857 27793 18046 0 32643 1793794 43241670
25: Iraq 2078521 856 743 0 23765 2039612 16274048
26: Canada 1790579 3037 4223 0 29618 1727526 48485587
27: Romania 1773845 1958 2104 0 55989 1670101 15916982
28: Chile 1754443 2674 2670 0 38245 1648073 25337576
29: Japan 1726299 113 112 524 18353 1707419 27687132
30: Belgium 1701633 21772 20836 0 26840 1307154 24287332
31: Bangladesh 1575424 239 237 0 27973 1539830 10818785
32: Israel 1341541 453 607 0 8182 1327046 31188024
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered TestsNote. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.
Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.
The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.
Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2021-11-26
Romania's case based on different models
Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.
On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.
On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).
On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?
On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.
On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.
As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!
On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.
Updated: 2021-11-27 08:00:18
