Covid-19
This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.
It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.
As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.
New information as at 2022-09-28 based on 616,627,602 confirmed cases worldwide (6,566,677 deaths, 535 deaths today, on 482,768 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered Tests
1: US 96249166 86496 44370 1854947 1083798 94855749 1116585485
2: India 44583360 4272 3615 0 528611 44013999 894416853
3: France 35508658 51907 75225 0 155045 34508061 271490188
4: Brazil 34654190 15902 0 42673 685978 33838636 63776166
5: Germany 33216006 78863 95811 0 149808 32284200 122332384
6: Korea, South 24740635 30846 36126 0 28364 23976569 15804065
7: United Kingdom 23842451 1916 11 0 189919 23344215 522526476
8: Italy 22395282 36795 44875 0 177024 21758885 246438376
9: Japan 21147468 0 43670 81748 44678 20380089 76201407
10: Russia 20609684 39730 36356 338786 387163 19979763 273400000
11: Turkey 16873793 0 0 0 101139 16751243 162743369
12: Spain 13412263 0 8761 0 114084 13218892 471036328
13: Vietnam 11476908 1587 1588 978 43148 10590917 85826548
14: Australia 10209239 1652 1630 0 14984 10133494 78835048
15: Argentina 9708420 0 0 0 129897 9562220 35716069
16: Netherlands 8532760 33 6877 0 22643 8361178 21107399
17: Iran 7547968 262 309 352 144421 7325370 54095556
18: Mexico 7082034 0 0 511 330048 6352332 18393211
19: Indonesia 6427764 1915 1976 2003 158093 6253317 108656989
20: Taiwan* 6373121 48543 45784 NA NA NA NA
21: Colombia 6306552 0 0 0 141769 6133785 36519532
22: Poland 6285403 4873 6482 4269 117539 5335940 37335609
23: Portugal 5484946 3277 805 0 25017 5392728 44988307
24: Ukraine 5433127 287 249 0 109045 4970306 19521252
25: Austria 5105202 14848 10654 13310 20738 5006572 197543761
26: Greece 4920192 0 44977 0 33111 4831702 94139966
27: Malaysia 4837005 2445 1552 0 36365 4775927 64572245
28: Thailand 4680470 1448 0 0 32758 4641350 17270775
29: Israel 4659652 519 1377 9 11693 4641394 41373364
30: Chile 4616294 4016 1925 0 61092 4540886 45082600
31: Belgium 4533249 0 0 0 32659 4449656 35555508
32: Canada 4270276 2664 3187 0 44992 4128389 64928884
33: Peru 4142104 0 694 981 216539 3914611 35126382
34: Switzerland 4103959 0 16872 0 14183 4009494 22318542
35: Czechia 4100480 767 4229 0 41059 4035333 56212735
36: South Africa 4018102 0 314 0 102169 3909265 26174429
37: Philippines 3943153 1497 1455 2413 62916 3854478 32796350
38: Denmark 3343574 1613 1476 0 7065 3093404 128397719
39: Romania 3266196 1425 1862 1174 67016 3180137 25094131
40: China 2747530 5109 4485 0 15379 1711315 54352132
41: Slovakia 2623345 1134 1064 0 20455 1817939 7298163
42: Sweden 2583370 0 0 5071 20194 2548125 18965590
43: Iraq 2459982 0 477 0 25355 2433704 19239264
44: Serbia 2356982 2709 2747 0 16983 2296363 11016487
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered TestsNote. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.
Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.
The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.
Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2022-09-28
Romania's case based on different models
Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.
On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.
On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).
On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?
On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.
On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.
As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!
On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.
Updated: 2022-09-29 17:50:22
