Covid-19

This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.

It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.

As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.

New information as at 2023-02-08 based on 672,272,971 confirmed cases worldwide (6,801,758 deaths, 34 deaths today, on 228,130 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)

           Country       Sum LastDay TwoDays   Newly  Deaths Recovered      Tests
 1:             US 102737726   81733   30970 1882635 1137929 101830849 1161492751
 2:          India  44684973     109      96       0  530746  44151108  916215668
 3:         France  39757008    3991    5024       0  164500  39307773  271490188
 4:        Germany  37879714   18011   19480       0  166526  37485600  122332384
 5:         Brazil  36897683    9692    9217   10207  697583  36029839   63776166
 6:          Japan  32868798   41584   44755       0   69962  21613902   93017895
 7:   Korea, South  30311979   14664   17934       0   33680  29965883   15804065
 8:          Italy  25488166       0       0       0  187272  25072909  266073786
 9: United Kingdom  24526866      59       0       0  204898  24045137  522526476
10:         Russia  21713101   10327    7535  309731  395406  21401443  273400000
11:         Turkey  17042722       0       0       0  101492         0  162743369
12:          Spain  13740531       0       0       0  118712  13569497  471036328
13:        Vietnam  11526610      19      14       0   43186  10614598   85826548
14:      Australia  11312904       0       0       0   18828  11260631   78835048
15:      Argentina  10040329       0       0       0  130437   9896119   35716069
16:        Taiwan*   9733094   24231   23379      NA      NA        NA         NA
17:    Netherlands   8697673       0    1356       0   22992   8552738   25984435
18:           Iran   7565144     119     144       0  144771   7337996   55034937
19:         Mexico   7390902     672       0       0  332483   6634716   19414006
20:      Indonesia   6731959     263     392       0  160852   6566912  114158919
21:         Poland   6385880    1210    1445       0  118762   5335940   38155458
22:       Colombia   6355637     502       0    2431  142576   6181914   36951507
23:        Austria   5812712    5536    3806       0   21768   5752040  211273524
24:        Ukraine   5682835      62      80       0  111063   5256412   32603805
25:       Portugal   5564925       0     671       0   26052   5535230   45931864
26:         Greece   5548487       0       0  175228   35822   5672479  102228365
27:          Chile   5132118    1914     995       0   63919   5064411   48216030
28:       Malaysia   5038543     189     184       0   36946   4991705   67786489
29:          China   4903515       2       4       0   18673   3051062   76127725
30:         Israel   4789863     378     474       9   12224   4772504   41373364
31:       Thailand   4727236       0       0       0   33882   4692636   17270775
32:        Belgium   4695403       0       0       0   33582   4650888   36583888
33:        Czechia   4593277     721    1006       0   42334   4538682   56916329
34:         Canada   4575152    1155    1990       0   50629   4462362   66343123
35:           Peru   4482852       0     223       0  219214   4261240   37829516
36:    Switzerland   4408833       0     918       0   14452   4369196   23833472
37:    Philippines   4074095     115     129       0   65886   3998927   34414509
38:   South Africa   4057211       0       0       0  102595   3912506   26473049
39:        Denmark   3447553     169     160       0    8188   3164561  129162649
40:        Romania   3327805       0       0       0   67619   3255029   26460191
41:         Sweden   2694893       0       0       0   23419   2671472   19426657
42:       Slovakia   2661781     158     275       0   20969   1839595    7393884
43:         Serbia   2477183     791     949       0   17728   2446781   12230405
44:           Iraq   2465545       0       0       0   25375   2439497   19544451
45:      Singapore   2220534     472     631       0    1722   2147693   24756666
           Country       Sum LastDay TwoDays   Newly  Deaths Recovered      Tests

Note. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.

Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.

The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.

Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2023-02-08

Romania's case based on different models

Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.

On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.

On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).

On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?

On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.

On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.

As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!

On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.

Updated: 2023-02-09 11:22:19

Valentin Cornaciu
Valentin Cornaciu
Actuary

My research interests include insurance, finance, audit, pricing.

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