Covid-19
This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.
It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.
As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.
New information as at 2023-02-08 based on 672,272,971 confirmed cases worldwide (6,801,758 deaths, 34 deaths today, on 228,130 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered Tests
1: US 102737726 81733 30970 1882635 1137929 101830849 1161492751
2: India 44684973 109 96 0 530746 44151108 916215668
3: France 39757008 3991 5024 0 164500 39307773 271490188
4: Germany 37879714 18011 19480 0 166526 37485600 122332384
5: Brazil 36897683 9692 9217 10207 697583 36029839 63776166
6: Japan 32868798 41584 44755 0 69962 21613902 93017895
7: Korea, South 30311979 14664 17934 0 33680 29965883 15804065
8: Italy 25488166 0 0 0 187272 25072909 266073786
9: United Kingdom 24526866 59 0 0 204898 24045137 522526476
10: Russia 21713101 10327 7535 309731 395406 21401443 273400000
11: Turkey 17042722 0 0 0 101492 0 162743369
12: Spain 13740531 0 0 0 118712 13569497 471036328
13: Vietnam 11526610 19 14 0 43186 10614598 85826548
14: Australia 11312904 0 0 0 18828 11260631 78835048
15: Argentina 10040329 0 0 0 130437 9896119 35716069
16: Taiwan* 9733094 24231 23379 NA NA NA NA
17: Netherlands 8697673 0 1356 0 22992 8552738 25984435
18: Iran 7565144 119 144 0 144771 7337996 55034937
19: Mexico 7390902 672 0 0 332483 6634716 19414006
20: Indonesia 6731959 263 392 0 160852 6566912 114158919
21: Poland 6385880 1210 1445 0 118762 5335940 38155458
22: Colombia 6355637 502 0 2431 142576 6181914 36951507
23: Austria 5812712 5536 3806 0 21768 5752040 211273524
24: Ukraine 5682835 62 80 0 111063 5256412 32603805
25: Portugal 5564925 0 671 0 26052 5535230 45931864
26: Greece 5548487 0 0 175228 35822 5672479 102228365
27: Chile 5132118 1914 995 0 63919 5064411 48216030
28: Malaysia 5038543 189 184 0 36946 4991705 67786489
29: China 4903515 2 4 0 18673 3051062 76127725
30: Israel 4789863 378 474 9 12224 4772504 41373364
31: Thailand 4727236 0 0 0 33882 4692636 17270775
32: Belgium 4695403 0 0 0 33582 4650888 36583888
33: Czechia 4593277 721 1006 0 42334 4538682 56916329
34: Canada 4575152 1155 1990 0 50629 4462362 66343123
35: Peru 4482852 0 223 0 219214 4261240 37829516
36: Switzerland 4408833 0 918 0 14452 4369196 23833472
37: Philippines 4074095 115 129 0 65886 3998927 34414509
38: South Africa 4057211 0 0 0 102595 3912506 26473049
39: Denmark 3447553 169 160 0 8188 3164561 129162649
40: Romania 3327805 0 0 0 67619 3255029 26460191
41: Sweden 2694893 0 0 0 23419 2671472 19426657
42: Slovakia 2661781 158 275 0 20969 1839595 7393884
43: Serbia 2477183 791 949 0 17728 2446781 12230405
44: Iraq 2465545 0 0 0 25375 2439497 19544451
45: Singapore 2220534 472 631 0 1722 2147693 24756666
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered TestsNote. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.
Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.
The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.
Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2023-02-08
Romania's case based on different models
Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.
On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.
On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).
On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?
On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.
On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.
As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!
On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.
Updated: 2023-02-09 11:22:19
