Covid-19
This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.
It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.
As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.
New information as at 2021-06-16 based on 177,039,063 confirmed cases worldwide (3,850,306 deaths, 536 deaths today, on 395,230 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered Tests
1: US 33498468 12430 11304 867517 616150 28616495 496625233
2: India 29700313 67208 62224 0 381931 28491670 385238220
3: Brazil 17628588 95367 80609 1126 493837 16030601 50870041
4: France 5809319 3064 3243 0 110578 5525051 89589999
5: Turkey 5348249 6221 5955 0 48950 5215654 57674798
6: Russia 5189260 13209 14002 60730 127576 4828500 143600000
7: United Kingdom 4605805 8811 7594 0 127926 4294506 197685875
8: Italy 4248432 1400 1253 0 127153 4019424 69099370
9: Argentina 4198620 25878 27260 0 87261 3791979 15514806
10: Colombia 3829879 27827 24452 0 97560 3565158 18451017
11: Spain 3749031 3832 3432 0 80615 3536165 51240666
12: Germany 3726767 1439 1160 0 90748 3594700 62263057
13: Iran 3060135 10487 10216 0 82480 2696434 21941648
14: Poland 2878061 242 211 0 74688 2649184 16718899
15: Mexico 2463390 3789 4250 0 230624 1962152 7270369
16: Ukraine 2286767 1233 1197 0 51902 2145660 10576820
17: Peru 2007477 0 3852 7713 189522 0 13564562
18: Indonesia 1937652 9944 8161 0 53476 1763870 18195984
19: South Africa 1774312 13246 8436 0 58223 1620317 12331837
20: Netherlands 1703218 1044 1050 0 17719 1583274 14444249
21: Czechia 1665526 199 189 134 30257 1631027 27431368
22: Chile 1491561 4322 4576 0 30922 1420365 16122245
23: Canada 1412737 1085 824 0 26001 1364997 35889917
24: Philippines 1332832 5401 5378 0 23121 1253541 14229423
25: Iraq 1269440 5139 4618 0 16781 1184492 11109563
26: Sweden 1084636 0 1180 0 14537 1032523 10423085
27: Romania 1079983 104 103 0 32028 1044687 9465003
28: Belgium 1077758 671 508 0 25110 1006824 14642274
29: Pakistan 944065 0 1038 1119 21874 887095 13971689
30: Portugal 860395 1350 973 0 17055 817092 12482057
31: Israel 839720 19 11 0 6428 833061 14758111
32: Bangladesh 837247 3956 3319 0 13282 773752 6242786
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered TestsNote. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.
Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.
The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.
Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2021-06-16
Romania's case based on different models
Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.
On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.
On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).
On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?
On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.
On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.
As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!
On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.
Updated: 2021-06-17 10:25:22
