Covid-19

This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.

It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.

As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.

New information as at 2021-03-01 based on 114,442,646 confirmed cases worldwide (2,553,495 deaths, 2,492 deaths today, on 306,291 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)

           Country      Sum LastDay TwoDays  Newly Deaths Recovered     Tests
 1:             US 28664481   58812   51204 649773 527226  19817532 360725221
 2:          India 11124527   12286   15510      0 157275  10798921 217618057
 3:         Brazil 10587001   35742   34027   2607 255836   9457100  28600000
 4:         Russia  4209850   11450   11234  58365  86896   3838040 111500000
 5: United Kingdom  4194289    5462    6055      0 122953   2959884  90739196
 6:         France  3820369    4730   19952      0  86803    258384  53281689
 7:          Spain  3204531   15978       0      0  69609   2722304  39313189
 8:          Italy  2938371   13106   17440      0  97945   2416093  40303520
 9:         Turkey  2711479    9891    8424      0  28638   2578181  33305552
10:        Germany  2455569    5274    6118    718  70985   2264600  43950029
11:       Colombia  2255260    3570    3555      0  59866   2151633  11491151
12:      Argentina  2112023    4658    3168      0  52077   1911338   7466942
13:         Mexico  2089281    2343    2810      0 186152   1639943   5460692
14:         Poland  1711772    4786   10101   7936  44008   1438032   9945404
15:           Iran  1639679    8510    8010   8495  60267   1406845  10972109
16:   South Africa  1513959     566    1168      0  50077   1431336   9077479
17:        Ukraine  1399934    4406    5958      0  26212   1176918   6948980
18:      Indonesia  1341314    6680    5560   5712  36518   1160863  10868049
19:           Peru  1329805    5942       0   3134  46685   1236668   7604514
20:        Czechia  1240051    4571    7885  12191  20701   1082617   8176797
21:    Netherlands  1107347    3783    4689      0  15584         0   6970400
22:         Canada   875388    3694    2347      0  22017    817586  24545470
23:          Chile   829770    5145    3207      0  20660    784213   9423598
24:       Portugal   804956     394     718      0  16351    720235   8233879
25:        Romania   804090    2096    2830   3950  20509    744040   6375052
26:         Israel   779958    4151    2472   1899   5779    736888  12108835
27:        Belgium   772294     783    2097      0  22106     52585   9483745
28:           Iraq   699088    3599    3248   4690  13458    643156   6920965
29:         Sweden   657309       0       0  11804  12882         0   6139911
30:       Pakistan   582528    1163    1392      0  12938    547406   9022124
           Country      Sum LastDay TwoDays  Newly Deaths Recovered     Tests

Note. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.

Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.

The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.

Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2021-03-01

Romania's case based on different models

Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.

On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.

On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).

On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?

On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.

On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.

As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!

On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.

Updated: 2021-03-02 16:00:22

Valentin Cornaciu
Valentin Cornaciu
Actuary

My research interests include insurance, finance, audit, pricing.

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