Covid-19
This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.
It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.
As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.
New information as at 2022-05-22 based on 525,611,048 confirmed cases worldwide (6,313,160 deaths, 930 deaths today, on 337,784 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered Tests
1: US 83281329 18309 25428 1792173 1029020 81678207 1022328379
2: India 43138393 2022 2226 1106 524459 42599102 847092226
3: Brazil 30791220 28807 0 12775 665727 29851917 63776166
4: France 29580970 16965 22507 0 147917 28609930 271490188
5: Germany 26045528 1245 3823 58100 138738 24708600 122332384
6: United Kingdom 22422800 0 54 0 177977 21836316 522526476
7: Russia 18026628 4627 4962 270980 378426 17694020 273400000
8: Korea, South 17967672 9975 19298 0 23987 17414103 15804065
9: Italy 17247552 18289 24246 10021 166032 16258494 219525905
10: Turkey 15063298 905 2281 0 98929 14961011 161664811
11: Spain 12234806 0 55572 3267 105947 11620275 471036328
12: Vietnam 10708887 1319 1457 1179 43076 9405908 85814565
13: Argentina 9178795 43487 0 0 128825 8895999 35716069
14: Japan 8614387 31339 35848 4296 30307 8243263 51460902
15: Netherlands 8259308 0 0 0 22307 8015332 21107399
16: Iran 7230053 312 159 268 141281 7035798 52031785
17: Australia 6983054 34087 38512 0 8109 6563517 71279851
18: Colombia 6099111 0 0 0 139833 5930545 34792844
19: Indonesia 6052590 227 263 174 156534 5893340 98171807
20: Poland 6005531 95 335 65 116268 5335262 36286936
21: Mexico 5752441 0 0 0 324617 5050420 15897804
22: Ukraine 5040518 0 0 0 108497 0 19521252
23: Malaysia 4491320 1817 2021 1544 35645 4432071 59607632
24: Portugal 4422533 0 0 0 22583 0 42298739
25: Thailand 4415593 4099 10116 0 29778 4334812 17270775
26: Austria 4266462 0 0 0 18599 4173311 186421071
27: Belgium 4134293 0 0 0 31675 3990880 33947485
28: Israel 4122312 1698 1639 1494 10833 4098862 41373364
29: South Africa 3929872 3220 5019 1662 100952 3739543 25081137
30: Czechia 3918127 63 85 0 40266 3876254 55366573
31: Canada 3863653 1095 1383 0 40679 3516903 61679093
32: Philippines 3688941 190 243 191 60455 3626406 30029881
33: Switzerland 3659937 0 0 0 13934 3579618 20991820
34: Chile 3643136 6143 6252 4225 57810 3486661 38123516
35: Peru 3576042 751 415 0 213106 0 30448621
36: Greece 3419998 2385 3424 2235 29711 3346122 81883919
37: Denmark 3177581 0 0 0 6312 2965874 127377418
38: Romania 2906051 192 320 234 65654 0 23065296
39: Slovakia 2540471 0 0 0 20081 1765106 7138024
40: Sweden 2506607 0 0 0 18908 2480483 18573144
41: China 2396751 4784 9870 0 14593 213834 44972952
42: Iraq 2327269 77 78 118 25218 2301061 18561155
43: Serbia 2015086 186 247 296 16068 1992675 9656839
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered TestsNote. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.
Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.
The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.
Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2022-05-23
Romania's case based on different models
Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.
On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.
On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).
On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?
On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.
On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.
As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!
On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.
Updated: 2022-05-24 03:00:20
