Covid-19

This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.

It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.

As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.

New information as at 2021-06-16 based on 177,039,063 confirmed cases worldwide (3,850,306 deaths, 536 deaths today, on 395,230 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)

           Country      Sum LastDay TwoDays  Newly Deaths Recovered     Tests
 1:             US 33498468   12430   11304 867517 616150  28616495 496625233
 2:          India 29700313   67208   62224      0 381931  28491670 385238220
 3:         Brazil 17628588   95367   80609   1126 493837  16030601  50870041
 4:         France  5809319    3064    3243      0 110578   5525051  89589999
 5:         Turkey  5348249    6221    5955      0  48950   5215654  57674798
 6:         Russia  5189260   13209   14002  60730 127576   4828500 143600000
 7: United Kingdom  4605805    8811    7594      0 127926   4294506 197685875
 8:          Italy  4248432    1400    1253      0 127153   4019424  69099370
 9:      Argentina  4198620   25878   27260      0  87261   3791979  15514806
10:       Colombia  3829879   27827   24452      0  97560   3565158  18451017
11:          Spain  3749031    3832    3432      0  80615   3536165  51240666
12:        Germany  3726767    1439    1160      0  90748   3594700  62263057
13:           Iran  3060135   10487   10216      0  82480   2696434  21941648
14:         Poland  2878061     242     211      0  74688   2649184  16718899
15:         Mexico  2463390    3789    4250      0 230624   1962152   7270369
16:        Ukraine  2286767    1233    1197      0  51902   2145660  10576820
17:           Peru  2007477       0    3852   7713 189522         0  13564562
18:      Indonesia  1937652    9944    8161      0  53476   1763870  18195984
19:   South Africa  1774312   13246    8436      0  58223   1620317  12331837
20:    Netherlands  1703218    1044    1050      0  17719   1583274  14444249
21:        Czechia  1665526     199     189    134  30257   1631027  27431368
22:          Chile  1491561    4322    4576      0  30922   1420365  16122245
23:         Canada  1412737    1085     824      0  26001   1364997  35889917
24:    Philippines  1332832    5401    5378      0  23121   1253541  14229423
25:           Iraq  1269440    5139    4618      0  16781   1184492  11109563
26:         Sweden  1084636       0    1180      0  14537   1032523  10423085
27:        Romania  1079983     104     103      0  32028   1044687   9465003
28:        Belgium  1077758     671     508      0  25110   1006824  14642274
29:       Pakistan   944065       0    1038   1119  21874    887095  13971689
30:       Portugal   860395    1350     973      0  17055    817092  12482057
31:         Israel   839720      19      11      0   6428    833061  14758111
32:     Bangladesh   837247    3956    3319      0  13282    773752   6242786
           Country      Sum LastDay TwoDays  Newly Deaths Recovered     Tests

Note. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.

Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.

The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.

Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2021-06-16

Romania's case based on different models

Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.

On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.

On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).

On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?

On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.

On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.

As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!

On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.

Updated: 2021-06-17 10:25:22

Valentin Cornaciu
Valentin Cornaciu
Actuary

My research interests include insurance, finance, audit, pricing.

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