Covid-19
This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.
It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.
As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.
New information as at 2020-12-03 based on 65,220,557 confirmed cases worldwide (1,516,401 deaths, 4,235 deaths today, on 690,127 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered Tests
1: US 14139577 217664 200055 402467 282975 8568618 201776622
2: India 9571559 36595 35551 14819 139384 9032149 144727749
3: Brazil 6487084 50434 49863 432 175307 5725010 25700000
4: Russia 2354934 27829 25043 48015 42176 1888752 78227415
5: France 2310271 12878 14221 0 54140 166940 20787734
6: United Kingdom 1678418 14951 16237 0 60113 0 44416420
7: Spain 1675902 10127 9331 17689 46038 0 22992742
8: Italy 1664829 23219 20709 0 58038 846809 22561071
9: Argentina 1447732 7629 7533 0 39305 1274675 4022872
10: Colombia 1343322 9233 9297 0 37305 1233115 6592775
11: Mexico 1144643 11030 11251 0 108173 843231 2948516
12: Germany 1141544 23591 23275 0 18362 820600 29141172
13: Poland 1028610 14863 13823 13236 19359 666413 6396712
14: Iran 1003494 13922 13621 13341 49695 708106 6256715
15: Peru 967075 3470 0 1771 36104 901544 5119245
16: South Africa 800872 4400 4173 0 21803 739367 5500669
17: Ukraine 793372 14812 13443 0 13195 397809 4528772
18: Turkey 733261 32381 31923 0 14316 418331 19143746
19: Belgium 584857 2605 3040 0 17033 38577 6012323
20: Iraq 558767 2039 1961 1855 12387 489772 3609466
21: Indonesia 557877 8369 5533 5803 17479 466178 5926986
22: Chile 555406 1508 1034 0 15519 530470 5414795
23: Netherlands 546982 5744 5109 0 9623 0 4043482
24: Czechia 537663 4621 4568 0 8641 468302 3131585
25: Romania 492211 7661 4916 8062 12052 390212 4205480
26: Bangladesh 471739 2316 2198 2252 6772 390951 2836411
27: Philippines 435413 1056 1432 932 8509 399345 5906862
28: Pakistan 410072 3262 3499 0 8260 350305 5672166
29: Canada 399770 6264 6454 0 12407 314608 11739689
30: Morocco 368624 4434 4346 0 6063 318987 4016991
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered TestsNote. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.
Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.
The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.
Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2020-12-03
Romania's case based on different models
Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.
On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.
On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).
On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?
On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.
On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.
As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!
On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.
Updated: 2020-12-04 16:25:38
