Covid-19
This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only “signal” or at most “provisional” estimates will be provided.
It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.
As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania’s forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.
New information as at 2020-09-22 based on 31,517,087 confirmed cases worldwide (982,824 deaths, 651 deaths in the last 24h)
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered Tests
1: US 6896218 39334 52070 243335 206593 4398907 100582090
2: India 5562663 0 75083 167521 91173 4671850 66279462
3: Brazil 4591364 33324 13411 36416 139065 3992886 17900000
4: Russia 1111157 6109 6090 11084 19799 923699 43600000
5: Colombia 777537 7102 5359 6731 24746 662277 3499136
6: Peru 768895 0 6030 13800 31870 636489 3751583
7: Mexico 705263 4683 2917 4786 74949 510237 1620878
8: Spain 682267 10799 31428 11289 31034 0 11820505
9: South Africa 663282 1346 725 1906 16206 594229 4083757
10: Argentina 652174 12027 8782 12625 14376 525486 1815738
11: France 507150 10299 29237 0 31459 93538 10000000
12: Chile 448523 1055 1194 1380 12345 425165 3084117
13: Iran 429193 3712 3341 3605 24840 365846 3828330
14: United Kingdom 406058 4936 4378 3671 41862 0 22616796
15: Bangladesh 352178 1557 1703 1666 5044 262953 1862637
16: Saudi Arabia 330798 552 492 561 4569 313786 6190822
17: Iraq 327580 4724 3821 5055 8754 264988 2121304
18: Pakistan 307418 532 582 0 6432 293916 3264216
19: Turkey 306302 1692 1743 1767 7711 270723 9608370
20: Italy 300897 1391 1350 1640 35758 220665 10679675
21: Philippines 291789 1599 3447 2802 5091 231373 3462679
22: Germany 277412 1852 1595 1793 9508 249500 14557136
23: Indonesia 252923 4071 4176 4465 9977 187958 3032250
24: Israel 193374 2445 3027 11316 1325 144963 3195429
25: Ukraine 185890 2990 2781 0 3705 81670 2079482
26: Canada 148855 1272 1833 0 9243 127788 6833661
27: Bolivia 131453 467 310 537 7731 91556 292016
28: Ecuador 127643 932 292 2249 11171 102852 399096
29: Qatar 123917 313 228 258 212 121006 739091
30: Romania 114648 1059 808 1767 4550 93558 2278125
31: Dominican Republic 109269 486 494 468 2074 83434 455525
32: Kazakhstan 107450 76 67 0 1699 102064 2733455
33: Panama 107284 474 607 706 2291 84437 447769
34: Morocco 105346 2227 1376 2397 1918 88244 2457373
35: Belgium 105226 1834 1097 0 9955 19039 2942559
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered TestsNote. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.
Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country’s data.
The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.
Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2020-09-23
Romania’s case based on different models
Now we will try to forecast Romania’s evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.
On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania’s cases will double before 2020-04-04.
On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).
On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I’ll bet they will have an unique model, don’t you agree?
On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.
On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.
As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania’s model got a drift!
On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.
Updated: 2020-09-24 05:00:17
