Covid-19

This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.

It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.

As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.

New information as at 2021-11-26 based on 260,650,450 confirmed cases worldwide (5,211,002 deaths, 361 deaths today, on 585,981 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)

           Country      Sum LastDay TwoDays  Newly Deaths Recovered     Tests
 1:             US 48177907   51333   34522 873010 799138  38840683 748066598
 2:          India 34555431       0   10549   8318 467933  33988797 638247889
 3:         Brazil 22067630   12392   12126      0 614000  21282804  63776166
 4: United Kingdom 10125945   49829   47287      0 144593   8912424 358682719
 5:         Russia  9337575   33824   32866 165304 270292   8200971 222900000
 6:         Turkey  8702611   24002   24467      0  76041   8233500 106254025
 7:         France  7654128   34472   33510      0 118837   7090100 162981031
 8:           Iran  6102056    4384    4850      0 129462   5841870  38331546
 9:        Germany  5735837   65584   74579      0 101170   4803100  83816414
10:      Argentina  5324039    1912    2260      0 116505   5188158  26078053
11:          Spain  5131012    9912    9258      0  87955   4914286  66213858
12:       Colombia  5060557    2660    2644      0 128343   4900602  27944138
13:          Italy  4982022   13681   13756      0 133537   4675867 117226273
14:      Indonesia  4255268     453     372      0 143796   4103379  53414990
15:         Mexico  3879836    3445    8415      0 293614   3236518  11808599
16:        Ukraine  3565644   16802   17873      0  84149   2877021  15746389
17:         Poland  3461066   26794   28143      0  82607   2955478  24112413
18:   South Africa  2952500       0    2465   2828  89783   2845607  19348954
19:    Philippines  2830387     769     958      0  48017   2764517  24070626
20:       Malaysia  2614480    5501    6144      0  30240   2516693  37333750
21:    Netherlands  2596521   21349   22239      0  19217   2081649  19205114
22:           Peru  2231175    1434    3085      0 200987         0  20109465
23:       Thailand  2100959    6073   12894      0  20675   2000502  14913135
24:        Czechia  2089857   27793   18046      0  32643   1793794  43241670
25:           Iraq  2078521     856     743      0  23765   2039612  16274048
26:         Canada  1790579    3037    4223      0  29618   1727526  48485587
27:        Romania  1773845    1958    2104      0  55989   1670101  15916982
28:          Chile  1754443    2674    2670      0  38245   1648073  25337576
29:          Japan  1726299     113     112    524  18353   1707419  27687132
30:        Belgium  1701633   21772   20836      0  26840   1307154  24287332
31:     Bangladesh  1575424     239     237      0  27973   1539830  10818785
32:         Israel  1341541     453     607      0   8182   1327046  31188024
           Country      Sum LastDay TwoDays  Newly Deaths Recovered     Tests

Note. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.

Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.

The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.

Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2021-11-26

Romania's case based on different models

Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.

On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.

On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).

On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?

On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.

On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.

As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!

On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.

Updated: 2021-11-27 08:00:18

Valentin Cornaciu
Valentin Cornaciu
Actuary

My research interests include insurance, finance, audit, pricing.

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