Covid-19

This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.

It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.

As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.

New information as at 2022-05-22 based on 525,611,048 confirmed cases worldwide (6,313,160 deaths, 930 deaths today, on 337,784 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)

           Country      Sum LastDay TwoDays   Newly  Deaths Recovered      Tests
 1:             US 83281329   18309   25428 1792173 1029020  81678207 1022328379
 2:          India 43138393    2022    2226    1106  524459  42599102  847092226
 3:         Brazil 30791220   28807       0   12775  665727  29851917   63776166
 4:         France 29580970   16965   22507       0  147917  28609930  271490188
 5:        Germany 26045528    1245    3823   58100  138738  24708600  122332384
 6: United Kingdom 22422800       0      54       0  177977  21836316  522526476
 7:         Russia 18026628    4627    4962  270980  378426  17694020  273400000
 8:   Korea, South 17967672    9975   19298       0   23987  17414103   15804065
 9:          Italy 17247552   18289   24246   10021  166032  16258494  219525905
10:         Turkey 15063298     905    2281       0   98929  14961011  161664811
11:          Spain 12234806       0   55572    3267  105947  11620275  471036328
12:        Vietnam 10708887    1319    1457    1179   43076   9405908   85814565
13:      Argentina  9178795   43487       0       0  128825   8895999   35716069
14:          Japan  8614387   31339   35848    4296   30307   8243263   51460902
15:    Netherlands  8259308       0       0       0   22307   8015332   21107399
16:           Iran  7230053     312     159     268  141281   7035798   52031785
17:      Australia  6983054   34087   38512       0    8109   6563517   71279851
18:       Colombia  6099111       0       0       0  139833   5930545   34792844
19:      Indonesia  6052590     227     263     174  156534   5893340   98171807
20:         Poland  6005531      95     335      65  116268   5335262   36286936
21:         Mexico  5752441       0       0       0  324617   5050420   15897804
22:        Ukraine  5040518       0       0       0  108497         0   19521252
23:       Malaysia  4491320    1817    2021    1544   35645   4432071   59607632
24:       Portugal  4422533       0       0       0   22583         0   42298739
25:       Thailand  4415593    4099   10116       0   29778   4334812   17270775
26:        Austria  4266462       0       0       0   18599   4173311  186421071
27:        Belgium  4134293       0       0       0   31675   3990880   33947485
28:         Israel  4122312    1698    1639    1494   10833   4098862   41373364
29:   South Africa  3929872    3220    5019    1662  100952   3739543   25081137
30:        Czechia  3918127      63      85       0   40266   3876254   55366573
31:         Canada  3863653    1095    1383       0   40679   3516903   61679093
32:    Philippines  3688941     190     243     191   60455   3626406   30029881
33:    Switzerland  3659937       0       0       0   13934   3579618   20991820
34:          Chile  3643136    6143    6252    4225   57810   3486661   38123516
35:           Peru  3576042     751     415       0  213106         0   30448621
36:         Greece  3419998    2385    3424    2235   29711   3346122   81883919
37:        Denmark  3177581       0       0       0    6312   2965874  127377418
38:        Romania  2906051     192     320     234   65654         0   23065296
39:       Slovakia  2540471       0       0       0   20081   1765106    7138024
40:         Sweden  2506607       0       0       0   18908   2480483   18573144
41:          China  2396751    4784    9870       0   14593    213834   44972952
42:           Iraq  2327269      77      78     118   25218   2301061   18561155
43:         Serbia  2015086     186     247     296   16068   1992675    9656839
           Country      Sum LastDay TwoDays   Newly  Deaths Recovered      Tests

Note. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.

Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.

The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.

Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2022-05-23

Romania's case based on different models

Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.

On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.

On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).

On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?

On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.

On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.

As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!

On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.

Updated: 2022-05-24 03:00:20

Valentin Cornaciu
Valentin Cornaciu
Actuary

My research interests include insurance, finance, audit, pricing.

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