Covid-19

This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.

It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.

As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.

New information as at 2022-09-28 based on 616,627,602 confirmed cases worldwide (6,566,677 deaths, 535 deaths today, on 482,768 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)

           Country      Sum LastDay TwoDays   Newly  Deaths Recovered      Tests
 1:             US 96249166   86496   44370 1854947 1083798  94855749 1116585485
 2:          India 44583360    4272    3615       0  528611  44013999  894416853
 3:         France 35508658   51907   75225       0  155045  34508061  271490188
 4:         Brazil 34654190   15902       0   42673  685978  33838636   63776166
 5:        Germany 33216006   78863   95811       0  149808  32284200  122332384
 6:   Korea, South 24740635   30846   36126       0   28364  23976569   15804065
 7: United Kingdom 23842451    1916      11       0  189919  23344215  522526476
 8:          Italy 22395282   36795   44875       0  177024  21758885  246438376
 9:          Japan 21147468       0   43670   81748   44678  20380089   76201407
10:         Russia 20609684   39730   36356  338786  387163  19979763  273400000
11:         Turkey 16873793       0       0       0  101139  16751243  162743369
12:          Spain 13412263       0    8761       0  114084  13218892  471036328
13:        Vietnam 11476908    1587    1588     978   43148  10590917   85826548
14:      Australia 10209239    1652    1630       0   14984  10133494   78835048
15:      Argentina  9708420       0       0       0  129897   9562220   35716069
16:    Netherlands  8532760      33    6877       0   22643   8361178   21107399
17:           Iran  7547968     262     309     352  144421   7325370   54095556
18:         Mexico  7082034       0       0     511  330048   6352332   18393211
19:      Indonesia  6427764    1915    1976    2003  158093   6253317  108656989
20:        Taiwan*  6373121   48543   45784      NA      NA        NA         NA
21:       Colombia  6306552       0       0       0  141769   6133785   36519532
22:         Poland  6285403    4873    6482    4269  117539   5335940   37335609
23:       Portugal  5484946    3277     805       0   25017   5392728   44988307
24:        Ukraine  5433127     287     249       0  109045   4970306   19521252
25:        Austria  5105202   14848   10654   13310   20738   5006572  197543761
26:         Greece  4920192       0   44977       0   33111   4831702   94139966
27:       Malaysia  4837005    2445    1552       0   36365   4775927   64572245
28:       Thailand  4680470    1448       0       0   32758   4641350   17270775
29:         Israel  4659652     519    1377       9   11693   4641394   41373364
30:          Chile  4616294    4016    1925       0   61092   4540886   45082600
31:        Belgium  4533249       0       0       0   32659   4449656   35555508
32:         Canada  4270276    2664    3187       0   44992   4128389   64928884
33:           Peru  4142104       0     694     981  216539   3914611   35126382
34:    Switzerland  4103959       0   16872       0   14183   4009494   22318542
35:        Czechia  4100480     767    4229       0   41059   4035333   56212735
36:   South Africa  4018102       0     314       0  102169   3909265   26174429
37:    Philippines  3943153    1497    1455    2413   62916   3854478   32796350
38:        Denmark  3343574    1613    1476       0    7065   3093404  128397719
39:        Romania  3266196    1425    1862    1174   67016   3180137   25094131
40:          China  2747530    5109    4485       0   15379   1711315   54352132
41:       Slovakia  2623345    1134    1064       0   20455   1817939    7298163
42:         Sweden  2583370       0       0    5071   20194   2548125   18965590
43:           Iraq  2459982       0     477       0   25355   2433704   19239264
44:         Serbia  2356982    2709    2747       0   16983   2296363   11016487
           Country      Sum LastDay TwoDays   Newly  Deaths Recovered      Tests

Note. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.

Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.

The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.

Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2022-09-28

Romania's case based on different models

Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.

On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.

On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).

On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?

On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.

On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.

As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!

On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.

Updated: 2022-09-29 17:50:22

Valentin Cornaciu
Valentin Cornaciu
Actuary

My research interests include insurance, finance, audit, pricing.

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