Covid-19
This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.
It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.
As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.
New information as at 2021-03-01 based on 114,442,646 confirmed cases worldwide (2,553,495 deaths, 2,492 deaths today, on 306,291 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered Tests
1: US 28664481 58812 51204 649773 527226 19817532 360725221
2: India 11124527 12286 15510 0 157275 10798921 217618057
3: Brazil 10587001 35742 34027 2607 255836 9457100 28600000
4: Russia 4209850 11450 11234 58365 86896 3838040 111500000
5: United Kingdom 4194289 5462 6055 0 122953 2959884 90739196
6: France 3820369 4730 19952 0 86803 258384 53281689
7: Spain 3204531 15978 0 0 69609 2722304 39313189
8: Italy 2938371 13106 17440 0 97945 2416093 40303520
9: Turkey 2711479 9891 8424 0 28638 2578181 33305552
10: Germany 2455569 5274 6118 718 70985 2264600 43950029
11: Colombia 2255260 3570 3555 0 59866 2151633 11491151
12: Argentina 2112023 4658 3168 0 52077 1911338 7466942
13: Mexico 2089281 2343 2810 0 186152 1639943 5460692
14: Poland 1711772 4786 10101 7936 44008 1438032 9945404
15: Iran 1639679 8510 8010 8495 60267 1406845 10972109
16: South Africa 1513959 566 1168 0 50077 1431336 9077479
17: Ukraine 1399934 4406 5958 0 26212 1176918 6948980
18: Indonesia 1341314 6680 5560 5712 36518 1160863 10868049
19: Peru 1329805 5942 0 3134 46685 1236668 7604514
20: Czechia 1240051 4571 7885 12191 20701 1082617 8176797
21: Netherlands 1107347 3783 4689 0 15584 0 6970400
22: Canada 875388 3694 2347 0 22017 817586 24545470
23: Chile 829770 5145 3207 0 20660 784213 9423598
24: Portugal 804956 394 718 0 16351 720235 8233879
25: Romania 804090 2096 2830 3950 20509 744040 6375052
26: Israel 779958 4151 2472 1899 5779 736888 12108835
27: Belgium 772294 783 2097 0 22106 52585 9483745
28: Iraq 699088 3599 3248 4690 13458 643156 6920965
29: Sweden 657309 0 0 11804 12882 0 6139911
30: Pakistan 582528 1163 1392 0 12938 547406 9022124
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered TestsNote. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.
Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.
The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.
Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2021-03-01
Romania's case based on different models
Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.
On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.
On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).
On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?
On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.
On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.
As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!
On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.
Updated: 2021-03-02 16:00:22
