Covid-19

This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.

It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.

As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.

New information as at 2020-12-03 based on 65,220,557 confirmed cases worldwide (1,516,401 deaths, 4,235 deaths today, on 690,127 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)

           Country      Sum LastDay TwoDays  Newly Deaths Recovered     Tests
 1:             US 14139577  217664  200055 402467 282975   8568618 201776622
 2:          India  9571559   36595   35551  14819 139384   9032149 144727749
 3:         Brazil  6487084   50434   49863    432 175307   5725010  25700000
 4:         Russia  2354934   27829   25043  48015  42176   1888752  78227415
 5:         France  2310271   12878   14221      0  54140    166940  20787734
 6: United Kingdom  1678418   14951   16237      0  60113         0  44416420
 7:          Spain  1675902   10127    9331  17689  46038         0  22992742
 8:          Italy  1664829   23219   20709      0  58038    846809  22561071
 9:      Argentina  1447732    7629    7533      0  39305   1274675   4022872
10:       Colombia  1343322    9233    9297      0  37305   1233115   6592775
11:         Mexico  1144643   11030   11251      0 108173    843231   2948516
12:        Germany  1141544   23591   23275      0  18362    820600  29141172
13:         Poland  1028610   14863   13823  13236  19359    666413   6396712
14:           Iran  1003494   13922   13621  13341  49695    708106   6256715
15:           Peru   967075    3470       0   1771  36104    901544   5119245
16:   South Africa   800872    4400    4173      0  21803    739367   5500669
17:        Ukraine   793372   14812   13443      0  13195    397809   4528772
18:         Turkey   733261   32381   31923      0  14316    418331  19143746
19:        Belgium   584857    2605    3040      0  17033     38577   6012323
20:           Iraq   558767    2039    1961   1855  12387    489772   3609466
21:      Indonesia   557877    8369    5533   5803  17479    466178   5926986
22:          Chile   555406    1508    1034      0  15519    530470   5414795
23:    Netherlands   546982    5744    5109      0   9623         0   4043482
24:        Czechia   537663    4621    4568      0   8641    468302   3131585
25:        Romania   492211    7661    4916   8062  12052    390212   4205480
26:     Bangladesh   471739    2316    2198   2252   6772    390951   2836411
27:    Philippines   435413    1056    1432    932   8509    399345   5906862
28:       Pakistan   410072    3262    3499      0   8260    350305   5672166
29:         Canada   399770    6264    6454      0  12407    314608  11739689
30:        Morocco   368624    4434    4346      0   6063    318987   4016991
           Country      Sum LastDay TwoDays  Newly Deaths Recovered     Tests

Note. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.

Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.

The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.

Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2020-12-03

Romania's case based on different models

Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.

On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.

On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).

On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?

On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.

On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.

As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!

On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.

Updated: 2020-12-04 16:25:38

Valentin Cornaciu
Valentin Cornaciu
Actuary

My research interests include insurance, finance, audit, pricing.

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