Covid-19
This is an automatically generated report using the latest information and does not validate any information before publishing the results. Only "signal" or at most "provisional" estimates will be provided.
It uses daily data provided by 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE and makes no adjustments. Then, live data from Worldometers is used to update only the totals and see last hour data.
As forecast models have already appeared on this topic, we will try to make a dynamic model, which will be updated daily (so the current posting changes daily) starting from the modeling of better developed countries, that could apply to Romania's forecasts. A dynamic model of confirmed cases should give us a better insight of the economic impact of the virus.
New information as at 2023-03-09 based on 676,570,149 confirmed cases worldwide (6,921,172 deaths, 7 deaths today, on 177,325 new confirmed cases worldwide in the last day)
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered Tests
1: US 103802702 46931 64861 3429740 1167190 105368884 1180600368
2: India 44690738 440 379 302652 531893 44459514 930797975
3: France 39866718 6308 6111 256821 167548 39912343 271490188
4: Germany 38249060 7829 9621 179625 174352 38240600 122332384
5: Brazil 37076053 0 0 563271 703399 36249161 63776166
6: Japan 33320438 9834 11805 483134 74694 0 100414883
7: Korea, South 30615522 10335 10890 1289145 34893 31668618 15804065
8: Italy 25603510 0 0 283934 190706 25580707 273261725
9: United Kingdom 24658705 28783 76 0 226278 24389635 522526476
10: Russia 22075858 12385 12253 873385 399339 22389297 273400000
11: Turkey 17042722 0 0 189344 102174 0 162743369
12: Spain 13770429 0 0 134619 121622 13740203 471036328
13: Vietnam 11526994 0 8 92328 43206 10639805 85826548
14: Australia 11399460 13926 0 273307 21463 11609163 81916639
15: Argentina 10044957 0 0 9294 130509 9923742 35716069
16: Taiwan* 9970937 0 0 NA NA NA NA
17: Netherlands 8712835 0 0 0 22992 8587380 25984435
18: Iran 7572311 315 644 39969 146290 7367866 56782369
19: Mexico 7483444 3809 4416 145825 334266 6881069 20013810
20: Indonesia 6738225 307 312 72903 161844 6639565 114158919
21: Poland 6444960 3459 3903 72630 119623 5335940 38772511
22: Colombia 6359093 0 861 10823 142780 6190683 36951507
23: Austria 5961143 5283 6442 118875 22523 6053377 211273524
24: Ukraine 5711929 111 9859 0 112418 5440613 32603805
25: Portugal 5570473 0 2389 20397 26824 5559035 46139518
26: Greece 5548487 0 0 546863 37052 6046762 102228365
27: Chile 5192286 3906 3798 95737 64497 5223415 49768667
28: Malaysia 5044718 279 235 63868 37110 5053329 68360482
29: China 4903524 0 0 0 19091 3261671 76127725
30: Israel 4803824 660 1662 23816 12552 4798473 41373364
31: Belgium 4739365 11570 0 61394 34364 4763677 37018657
32: Thailand 4728182 0 0 19570 34232 4692636 17270775
33: Czechia 4618256 1142 1169 24281 42807 4599361 57225661
34: Canada 4617095 4041 835 67361 52751 4619393 66343123
35: Peru 4487553 0 619 20343 220695 4287201 38753114
36: Switzerland 4413911 0 0 0 14452 4390467 23833472
37: Philippines 4077452 150 119 81858 66482 4083967 35381460
38: South Africa 4067067 426 597 9396 102595 3912506 26795090
39: Denmark 3451036 139 140 0 8741 3173212 129295908
40: Romania 3346046 0 0 60123 68217 3335980 27587658
41: Sweden 2699339 804 0 12332 24489 2685341 19500873
42: Slovakia 2667551 262 374 0 21167 1845690 7432749
43: Serbia 2500142 873 954 43043 18057 2523465 12992295
44: Iraq 2465545 0 0 0 25375 2439497 19544451
45: New Zealand 2236114 1 0 160951 4448 2384172 7768604
Country Sum LastDay TwoDays Newly Deaths Recovered TestsNote. Last four columns are from Worldometers. Newly represents the difference from live data to last day data.
Choosing a model for different country based solely on that country's data.
The first step is to find the best ARIMA model for every country. Keep in mind that the confirmed cases depend on the tests done prior getting the results, not on the direct impact the virus develops naturally.
Note that Romania can be very small at the bottom due to development similar to US, but back in 2023-06-17
Romania's case based on different models
Now we will try to forecast Romania's evolution on different assumptions. The most important information is to test if the confidence intervals (dotted lines) get broken by the new results. The plot uses semi-transparent colors to allow for overlapping.
On 2020-03-25 Spain and Italy were poised to the same model (Italy+). US will surpass all other countries. Clearly all aver the world people are tested more than in the past. Romania's cases will double before 2020-04-04.
On 2020-03-27 Germany and US were poised to the same model (US+). Romania has none of the models (neither US+ nor Brazil+).
On 2020-03-28 Russia entered in the picture, just behind Romania. I'll bet they will have an unique model, don't you agree?
On 2020-04-03 Romania started to test at normal capacity. The model should converge to a stable one.
On 2020-06-03 The analysis takes into consideration last 100 days.
As we reached 10 milion cases worldwide, Romania's model got a drift!
On 2020-09-08 Italy was replaced by Brazil and Spain by India.
Updated: 2023-06-18 23:44:14
